May 15, 2007

Markets Brace for China Chill

Markets Brace for China Chill


In its aftermath, the economic cognate will have to shift from production to consumption; therefore we should see the stock prices of exporters falling even as those of companies servicing domestic demand will increase. Banks will have to absorb billions of yuan in defaults from the export sector, particularly to the many inefficient state-owned companies in northern China. That will cause a sharp decline initially in their stock prices, but I expect the outlook to improve rapidly thereafter.

For the rest of Asia, a yuan revaluation would set off increased volatility as investors try to take profits and other Asian countries adjust their currency values. In turn, their holdings of US and European government bonds as part of foreign-exchange reserves would diminish, sending up bond yields globally. That is how the adjustment in China would likely set off broader stock-market declines globally as investors come to terms with both higher interest rates and lower Asian appetite for Group of Seven assets. Sharp declines in stock prices would necessarily follow in most major Asian markets.

This correction would prove cathartic to the performance of Asian economies in the decades to come, but in the short term, pain is unavoidable.

As always, you have to know your own situation. One should plan accordingly and make investments in all things future shock proof.

It has been the conlcusion for here and some time that this Great debt has been coming along towards us with a historical certainty. Make sure that you are not already in debt before it comes. This must be the number one fact to have begun x(ing) your debt...yesterday.




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