August 27, 2007

600 Net: Great Resource

When you are on Debt Avenue, on the streets of life, it is always good to have a clear idea of where international finance is bound to head. After all, in this era of globalization, there is so much financial information available that it is too easy for those in debt, in a desperate situation, to follow advice intentional aimes are defrauding them. In this way, they might spiral further into debt. It might seem like an abyss. This was my initial experience when getting out of my own debt. From what used to mean information under load, today, it is all about information overload.

One company that provides exceptional bad credit loans and credit repair information is 600.net.

Through their site, you will access a plethora of information on a wide variety of topics. If you have problems with credit card, want more information on mortgage loans, 600.net is without a doubt a wonderful little corner where one can find information laid out in an easy to read manner.





End of an Epoch?

The dollar may decline to a record low against the euro in the next six months because U.S. economic growth will slow, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

From the current level of $1.3568 per euro, the U.S. currency will weaken to $1.43 per euro in the next three to six months, Goldman Sachs said in a research note yesterday. New York-based Goldman, the world's biggest securities firm by market value, lowered its dollar forecast from a prior estimate of $1.35. The dollar set a record low of $1.3852 per euro on July 24.

Concern about losses in investments related to mortgage securities has bolstered expectations the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate from 5.25 percent at its Sept. 18 policy meeting. Traders are certain the Fed will cut its key rate to at least 5 percent by Sept. 18, futures show.

``Financial conditions are tightening at a time when clearly there's some downside risk to the growth, said Jens Nordvig, a senior currency strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York. Fed rate cuts ``will drag the dollar lower.

The Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 4.5 percent by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.

The dollar will fall also because foreign investors will reduce purchases of higher-yielding corporate bonds, said Nordvig.

Goldman also said the dollar will decline to 110 yen in the next three to six months, from 116 yen at present, compared with a previous forecast of 118 yen.





Russian Gambit

Is it just me, or is Russia trying to play catch-up with US/NATO by offering the Czechs a post on the IMF instead of the proposed missile base?


By Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, August 23, 2007; Page A14

MOSCOW, Aug. 22 — Russia said Wednesday that it has nominated a former Czech prime minister to head the International Monetary Fund, challenging the European Union's traditional prerogative to fill the post.



August 24, 2007

THE WOUNDED HEART CONFERENCE

Sexual abuse is a problem that affects many men and women. The wounded heart conference is an event aiming to address the multitude of issues stemming from a sexually traumatic event in ones life.

At first glance, upon visiting the conference, the website draws the viewers attention to a heart in the sand. This indicates the wounded heart conference main goal, to show that healing is possible, and that the wounds from sexual trauma can be erased as if cool gentle waves washed over the wounded heart making all the pain vanish.

This might be the case if the trauma is dealt with properly. The site got me interested in the event, but not excited enough to register. If I were a victim of sexual abuse, it probably would get me excited. Drawing attention to this topic however is in and of itself important, however, but this is not enough to get someone to register.

The information on the wounded heart conference is presented nicely on the website, allowing for greater user interactivity than with the paper. When reading a poster about the conference, you simply absorb the information. Reading the website allows one to get more details on the conference, and then have the option of registering for the event if one so chooses.

The transition from the information page to the registration process is smooth and natural when clicking on the link. However, while overall, the design is perfect and simple, and, just enough information is presented to get one interested in the event, there is a fundamental error in the registration process.

This is one design element that I would incorporate into the site if I was responsible for the web design would be to have a link to the Conference Registration Forms page at the bottom of the text. If I were a user who was not certain of attendance when making the first click on the inbound link to the information page, I would want to read through the text first. Reading and scrolling to the bottom of the page, I might decide that the event is of interest to me, however, without a link to the registration page at the bottom of the information page, I would not be inclined to attend if after reading the information page.

A design flaw on the Conference Registration Forms page itself is that the fill in the blank boxes are not at the very top of the page. The event information should be at the bottom. If people are going to register, they will already have a clear idea as to where and when the event is since this information is well placed on the initial information page.

Go visit the wounded heart conference site and see for yourself, however, since truth is always in the eye of the beholder.











The Aborted Italian Gold Sales Plan

As always, I am on the lookout for information that might be of great interest to my readers. Given that I've been showing a keen interest in gold recently, I thought that I should share some of the following information with my readers. This is important in that Italy is a G8 nation, and might be showing a general trend that might not be seen overtly in the other great eight industrialized nations.

The Aborted Italian Gold Sales Plan


Sales of gold by European Central Banks are primarily for the adjustment of national reserves in terms of structure or size. They are not intended under the rules of the European Union, intended to pay the bills of the governments of Europe, so when the subject came up, after a consistent record of the Bank of Italy’s refusal to even contemplate the sale of the country’s gold reserves, everyone was surprised. The reality was suddenly the government of Italy wanted to put their hand into the country’s coffers in an exercise that would never have solved the country’s debt problems.

The Italian parliament approved a reserve plan allowing the government to look into using the Bank of Italy's substantial gold reserves to cut the country's huge debt. Italy has some 62% of its foreign exchange reserves value in gold at about 2,452 tonnes. The resolution inserted into Italy’s next budget committed the government to:

"Undertake, also in its relations with the European Union, a survey of all instruments useful to producing a significant reduction of the national debt, through agreed ways of using the reserves of the central banks, in gold and currency, in excess of that required by the agreement with the E.C.B. for the defense of the Euro." The wording suggested that Italy’s government would try to re-think at EU level the existing limitations on the use of the gold and currency reserves of Europe’s central banks. This was bound to ruffle the feathers of the European Central Bank!

The government plan aimed to cut Italy's debt to 103.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 from 105.1% of G.D.P. this year, about €27 billion ($36.9 billion), using the central bank's gold and foreign exchange reserves. If Italy were to sell 1740 tonnes of its gold it would have achieved this target. However it would have taken four years to do this under the ‘ceiling’ limitation of 500 tonnes if the C.B.G.A. is extended again under the same terms provided Italy was the only seller, during which time we have no doubt the Italian’s debt would have risen past the present level]. This achievement undoubtedly would have been swamped by the underlying problems in the Italian economy within a smaller period of time. Italy's debt is the world's third highest in absolute terms. This plan was unlikely to change that.



Was this plan reasonable? Not at all. Italy has had a very long record of poor management of its currency management in common with other European countries. One of the saving graces of the country with such a record is that it had the wisdom to hold large gold reserves in case the record continued, with gold always there to bail them out of the mess. The Italians could have undertaken sales of gold after Budget day 2008, once the Italian government had approved their next year’s budget. There was room though for gold sales, under the present agreement, for around 370 tonnes in the last two years of the agreement, which runs through until September 26th 2009, but no more. This would have made the exercise pointless.

It appears old fashioned now to think that national spending behavior should be limited to stop the bleeding, then repayment of debt undertaken, from new income. In high debt situations the sight of gold reserves to politicians in Europe except in Germany seems impossible to resist. Add to that a complete lack of understanding of gold as savings for a rainy day and you get another repeat of governments grabbing the piggy bank.



Wisely, the Bank of Italy kept silent. Because the plan crossed the lines of the Maastricht Treaty and impinged on European Central Bank territory, it was up to the European Central Bank to put the Italian government in its place. Italy’s approach was not solely an attack on gold reserves, but an attempt to adjust the policies of the Eurozone and interference in the activities of the European Central Bank.

The European Commission, was sharp in its response on the use of the Bank of Italy’s gold reserves to lower the country’s debt, saying, "It is up to the E.C.B. to decide about the foreign reserves including gold reserves of the € area member states, in full independence." Did we detect more than just a re-establishment of the order of financial seniority here? We would hope so in the days when the composition of reserves is becoming a sensitive issue, with the importance of gold in extreme times rising through the levels of priorities in the face of a weakening $ and shaky credit?

The matter is now put to rest, leaving a substantial shortfall in the ‘ceiling’ of gold sales for the entire Central Bank Gold Agreement 2,500 tonnes and the balance of announced gold sales to date short of that by around 400 to 500 tonnes.






The View from Deutschland

Things are not looking to good in in Europe either. taking a look at the state of affairs in the German economy, Europe's largest and strongest, gives us a good picture of how dire the situation is over there as well.

This article is a good overview into the complexities of the current German situation.

"If we have a banking crisis in Germany with other countries cutting us off, then other banks will also face difficulties."
His comments come days after a German lender, SachsenLB, said it required a credit line of 17.3 billion euros ($23.2 billion) because of the investments it had made in securities affected by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. IKB Deutsche Industriebank (DE:806330: news, chart, profile) required a similar bailout.

Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbrueck, was more optimistic, saying there are no signs of the German economy being affected. "I believe those involved have the situation in hand," he said.

Meanwhile, a poll of institutional investors of German economic sentiment fell to its lowest level in a year, according to the ZEW Institute. See Europe markets.







Hotel Reservations on the Cheap

The Fall season is right around the corner, and that always means that there is a great way to to save money on winter and spring tickets. Booking early never hurts, and one should always strive to save money when in debt.

Those in debt should not be traveling. Rather they should be preparing for the day when they are finally out of debt. Living cheaply by finding good deals will assure the greater possibility that one stays out of debt.

After much research into reduced income lifestyle, I came across an excellent source for Hotel Reservations at an excellent variety of otherwise pricey accommodations.

After deciding where to go, and that you are certain that the place to stay fits your exact needs (otherwise, just use the convenient search feature that will let you find another hotel allowing you to make Hotel Reservations at a more fitting establishment.

It is alway imperative to shop around when trying to get the cheapest discounts on Hotel Reservations. Your options are not limited to the good ole' U.S. America. Noope. Now we good Americans can choose any location on earth, to spend our good dollar. Reserve a hotel somewhere to make yourself free from the downsides of everyday life. Bring yourself out into the open, and explore your possibilities optimizing the Hotel Reservations search engine to find your every need. There is no doubt that it will be found since the databases appear to be in perfect order when searching international flights. I've only tried Asia thus far, but will be a definably good use o the system to book my next flight over to where I've made the Hotel Reservations.

Flights, vacations rentals and packages as well as cars can all all be found at the Hotel Reservations website. It is an excellent resource to book every aspect of your trip. You will not have to go through the hassle of dealing with an operator who is not certain of what YOU want to do on YOUR vacation, instead having a commission in mind. This Hotel Reservations website therefore becomes a liberating force in your life, increasing your happiness being that you yourself designed a vacation (always within your financial means). Great discounts are never a problem at Hotel Reservations dot com.

However, if you do not find what you are looking for, you can try one of either two things, search harder, like you would at most other websites or pick up the telephone and ask for a kind operatior. Hotel Reservations phone number is 1-800-447-4136





Gold Fever

When I trade I do not take much notice of who is buying or selling or who is rumored to be buying or selling. The only thing I look at is the direction of the market right now. Right now it is saying it is going down therefore the opportunity is to short futures.

The futures markets does tell a lot about the volume, open interest and the commitment of traders report (which is public) provides a nice summary of the commercial and speculative long and short positions of the previous week.

Too many people are now saying gold will go up in the unfolding global financial collapse. I like to always go against the crowd.

Gold will go higher but first it will drop like every other overpriced asset




Dumping the Dollar


By David Vaughn
Aug 20 2007 12:26PM

www.goldletterdv.com



The following is a good 6 dollar spike occurring in the middle of the week. Though too many are concerned with gold not breaking 700 already gold still continues to consolidate, gain steam, and become stronger still.



Now the title of this article is a pretty lofty accusation. We have heard this as a possibility countless, countless times but it has always been just a rumor. Is the possibility still just a rumor?

“China’s "nuclear option" to dump the dollar is real” “…China, not the Federal Reserve, controls US interest rates by its decision to purchase, hold, or dump US Treasury bonds…” “…Washington does not have hegemony over Chinese policy, and if matters go from push to shove, Washington can expect financial turmoil.” “China has many markets and can afford to lose the US market easier than the US can afford to lose the American brand names on Wal-Mart’s shelves that are made in China.”

Now just what would be the real cost should China stay true to their threat to dump U.S. dollars?

“Now let’s consider the cost to China of dumping dollars or Treasuries compared to the cost that the US is trying to impose on China.” “…consider that if China were to increase the value of the Yuan by 30 percent, the value of China’s dollar holdings would decline by 30 percent. It would have the same effect on China’s pocketbook as dumping dollars and Treasuries in the markets” “By dumping dollars, China expands its entry into other markets and accumulates more foreign currencies from trade surpluses.” “As is usually the case, the harm we suffer is inflicted by Washington.”

China has a carefully controlled socialist government that strictly controls any “official” statements coming from China. When China does want to send out a serious government endorsed statement it uses analysts and researchers to make a statement directed on the world stage and for all the world to take in – especially the United States. So what have the Chinese reported to us recently that has American politicians, including Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernake, quacking in their shoes?

"China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales" "The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a Yuan revaluation." "…such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels." " …Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it chooses to do so." "The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles…"

We see the economic storm building in intensity and this is no joke or imagination. Both the Fed and the rest of the world are presently injecting massive never before sums of billions of dollars to keep the world wide financial system door open. But right in the middle of this storm China, cool as a pickle, makes a threat it is thinking about selling an appreciable sum of those 1.333 trillion U.S. dollars it holds.

“China steps up currency fight by 'absurd' threat to sell $US dollars” “A Chinese Government researcher has issued a veiled threat to US policymakers not to get too tough in insisting the Chinese Yuan should appreciate. The researcher, He Fan, told the state-run China Daily that China had accumulated "a large sum of US dollars" and that its holdings contributed "a great deal to maintaining the position of the US dollar as an international currency". If the Yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar did not remain stable, said Mr He, who works at the China Academy of Social Sciences, China could be forced to take strong action. China has $US1.33 trillion ($1.55 trillion) in foreign exchange reserves, with $US407 billion in US Treasuries, the second largest after Japan. A substantial sell-off of the reserves could spark a recession in the US economy, financial analysts said.” “Mr He's statements were an apparent response to the US Senate Finance Committee, which last month approved legislation aimed at pressing for faster appreciation of the Yuan.”

Now is that not bravado and guts or what? If we look at all of this as a poker game played on the world stage I would say China believes itself to have the winning hand. You still think this is a joke? That is because you do not read enough. An astute reader can very quickly substantiate these allegations as real and with meat on their bones.

"Several U.S. senators have renewed calls in recent weeks to punish Beijing if it does not let the currency, the Yuan, rise in value."

This is not an idle joke or saber rattling to increase readership. This is very real my friends. A very serious financial crisis is occurring right before our face and what intrigues me is that there is not a major effort to hide these events. The Fed Chairman is loudly and publicly stating the huge sums of liquidity he is injecting in our financial system. Now that is either supreme confidence and bravado or a sense of hopelessness that the crap is soon to hit the fan and there will be no way to hide its consequences. I’ll let you decide.

"The dollar continued its decline in global currency markets yesterday, intensifying worries among some economists that mounting U.S. budget and trade deficits could send the U.S. currency into a tailspin." "The decline rekindled the fears of some analysts that the dollar could be headed for a severe sell-off…" "…foreigners might dump U.S. holdings." " …it would erode U.S. living standards below what they would be by making imported goods more expensive."

Folks, I really do not believe this to be a veiled threat. I firmly believe China is going to exercise a controlled dumping of U.S. dollars. When a new power comes on the scene it is quite normal for the fresh power to flex its muscle and to show its superiority.

"Hi David, good article." "VAE VICTUS"-Woe to the vanquished. Brennus leader of the Celts demanded a ransom from Rome, to be paid in gold. The Romans complained directly to Brennus that the measures were counterfeit, upon which Brennus drew his sword and threw it on the scales, exclaiming "vae victus!", for the conquered have no rights." "VAE VICTUS, AMERICANUM!! And bring out more gold."

Sean M.

Read the following below and wag your tail.

"An investment adviser halted withdrawals Tuesday, prompting unfounded fears that the credit crunch had started to touch money-market funds. But problems in the subprime mortgage market continue to take their toll on small lenders."

Yeah. Right. How do you like those “unfounded” fears that the credit crunch has started to touch money market funds?” We haven’t even seen the beginning of what all this financial mortgage crisis will obliterate. But gold remains strong and is getting only stronger.

"The Nymex metals market was the lone bright point Friday. Gold recovered from its losses of a day earlier as investors rushed back to that traditional haven amid the uncertainty in other markets." 'The market is starting to look at gold and silver as a place to maintain some value…"

Gold Letter, Inc. reviews gold, silver, uranium and other resource stocks under valued and poised to rise in this time of increased demand for all resources. Natural resources and related contrarian stocks will only escalate in value as the world continues to experience unprecedented population growth. Gold Letter’s 10 best performing stocks are up over 2,000% and GL’s top 55 performing stocks are up over 500%. Close to 90% of all Gold Letter's recommendations since inception in January, 2003 are up over 250%. GL charts are computer generated and updated every hour while markets are open.





A Bad Morning in Japan

It's certainly not a good morning in Tokyo. Things keep on slipping.

Trade was expected to remain relatively quiet and range-bound after the benchmark recouped nearly 70 percent of the losses it saw last week. The Nikkei plunged 9 percent last week, posting its biggest weekly percentage drop in seven years.
The financial whiz kids are aparantly confused as to what to do:

"Otherwise, the market is really searching for factors to move on. The selling we're seeing is basically to lock in profits, with the downside for the Nikkei solid at 16,100."





August 23, 2007

Helping Those With Alzeimers

When my grandfather got Alzheimer's, I didn't know much about the disease. It was simple at first. He would not recognize me, confuse me with other family members, or just not remember what he was about to go off to do in the next room. From what I had heard on television, I suspected this might be Alzheimer's.

This was confirmed when the doctor informed us officially of his condition.

His condition got worse and worse. The most surreal hour spent in my life is when my grandfather had a conversation with me as if I was his son, my father. Watching this man who I used to play catch with deteriorate in this way, and eventually move on from this life to the next, has had a lasting impact on me.

Losing gramps to this strange and mysterious brain disease is why I fully and wholeheartedly support the Alzheimer's
Association
in its Memory Walk®

This event aims to raise awareness and funds to care and support for those afflicted with the devastating Alzheimer's illness. The funds will also contribute to research the disease in order to achieve its ultimate goal: to end Alzheimer's.

The fundraising depends on volunteers, young and old, to join the nationwide effort Memory Walk. Over six-hundred communities are hosting these walks which consist of a two to three mile walk held on a weekend morning in the fall.

You walk anyway, but by joining the Memory Walk effort, each step you take that day will serve humanity by helping eradicate Alzheimer's from the brains of this whold.

By teaming up with the Alzheimer's Association, you can walk with a purpose – and move us closer to a world without Alzheimer's. Together, we can MOVE a nation.

So, go out, sign up and become a team captain! It might be too late for gramps, but its not too late for everyone else. Who knows, the funds gathered from this research might save you or me some day.





Memory Walk






Golden Facts



Of course, it is not so black and white with gold.

Where do you buy gold?
At the jewlery store? You pay more than market value there.

At the bank? It takes months to get physical possession of the gold.

At the pawn shop, one can always benefit from others misfortune, but market price will still be charged.

And then there's that nasty paper trail, just in case the gobs outlaw gold as a currancy and come to take it back.

Then, say in the event of a collaspe, you and I both know the gobs will always be there in one form or another.

Then there's gob spys, always looking for a leg up, you have to trade your gold with someone to make it tangibile, another trail and more people that know you have 'gold',

Also, keep in mind that in a complete collapse, a la WW2 germany, that gold is as likely to get you killed as it is to save you. I base that on info collected from family members that survived a real 'crash', one almost having her finger cut off for the gold that surrounded it, the same one watching neighbours being shot for not turning theirs over.

When a gun is put to your head, gold looses it's luster very fast.




Dealing With a Crash

There are two ways to deal with a system crash.

You can either liquidate all cash and buy gold or the like to trade and ride over the problem

or

Borrow mega millions and buy goods that will go up during a crash.

I know someone who spent mega on dunny-paper, old lady it was, she made five times the investment in 12 months when all the dunny-paper ran out.







The Great Crash of 2007-2008

This article is quite revealing of the troubles that we are facing.

The causes of the M1 decline are two-fold. One is the weak purchasing power of American consumers, at least half of whose decently-paying manufacturing jobs have been eliminated by the outsourcing, mergers, and productivity improvements during the past two decades. The other is that while many of the U.S. corporations not connected to housing have been doing all right, their success has been tied to overseas investments and sales, such as GE and GM who are heavily invested in China.
During a crash, when every man is for himself and the odds are down, if you haven't fully prepared to survive at least 4 years on your own while everyone else is dying, and you turn up here looking for a hand out, there will be an exchange of heavy metals ... either you will pass over gold or silver or we will pass over lead.

It's that simple ... during a crash gold talks ...




August 20, 2007

Incorporate with INCPARADISE!

Starting a company can sure be tough. With all the dizzying paperwork, legal fees, and other surprise costs, it can be a daunting task for someone or a group of people to get the courage to begin their own corporation.

This is no longer the case!

INCParadise.com is a company that helps out entrepreneurs start their own business. They are attractive to many newcomers to the world of small business since they do not charge the high fees typically associated with attorneys. The quality of their work however does not diminish with the low cost. All the complicated paperwork that must be done in order to set up ones own corporation can be filed by INCParadise.com.

A great benefit is that they can file the paperwork for any state. Their expertise is in starting up theNevada corporation However, beyond this is their ability to help a new company get off the ground with the virtual office and executive suite services.

This pretty much means that an entrepreneur can use INCParadise.com’s office space and conference in the early phases of corporate development. The perks include free phones, internet access and office access…for only forty-five dollars a month. A great deal for those start ups that want to keep a low overhead.




How can you build prosperity under a mountain of debt?

That is the question Americans should now be asking Allan Greenspam, who destroyed America with too much liquidity (debt) thereby fueling too many boom and bust asset bubbles starting in 1987 when he allowed every imaginable debt scheme in America. That is the massive government debt.

You will you can hear some people screaming deficit does not matter in the media. However, junk bonds, six-year car loans, adjustable rates, interest only mortgages, credit card debt to students still in school, derivatives and the list goes on and on.

If Americans actually had to pay for their increased standard of living through higher taxes, none of this would have occurred.

Using taxes to pay for policies would have allowed Americans to chose their social policies wisely in a way that benefited them the most without impoverishing them.

They could havedone away with useless projects like 1000's of useless military bases around the globe and foreign aid.

Now Americans face a bleak future having consumed all of their future productive capacity today.






Loss of Control

Obviously the title is completely backwards, the Fed is in total control because now it's the European Central Bank (ECB) and China that has to react to the Federal Reserve not the other way around.

The ECB will do anything they are instructed to do, China on the only hand is going to have to react to the Fed and the ECB.

My bet would be China loosens credit as well.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fed loses control on US interest rates and crisis reaches China and EU

Public announcement GEAB N°16


This second quarter's fundamental event about to shove most players' anticipations over the coming months, is certainly the final and simultaneous failure of the two key-strategies defined by US leaders, i.e.:

. in the economic, financial and monetary fields, the Fed' policy initiated a year ago when M3 publishing was abandoned and aimed at substituting a financial and stock bubble to the bursting housing bubble in order to maintain US growth (and capital attractiveness) has now patently failed, thus entailing a historical loss of the Fed's control on US interest rates (for the first time since 1918, except in times of war or social/economic depression)

. in the military, strategic and diplomatic fields, the stability plan for Iraq is a complete failure taking place in the framework of Washington's growing political paralysis (which LEAP/E2020 plans to describe in GEAB N°17 - on subscription).

Spring 2007 indeed appears as the tipping point of the global systemic crisis: the US economy went into recession, US interest rates were restored, the bond market is in crisis, the subprime crisis begins to hit large US financial institutions such as Bear Stearns (1), Goldman Sachs (2) and Freddie Mac (3), the US housing crisis is speeding up (4), the paralysis of Washington's political power grows (5), the isolation of the US on the international arena increases, the security plan for Iraq proves to be a complete failure, the US is powerless against Iran, the relaunch of the Israelo-Arab peace process aborts, trade tensions between China and the US rise, a growing number of countries (Kuwait, Syria,…) flee from the US dollar, etc…

However, according to LEAP/E2020 researchers, it is undeniably this Fed's and White House's (Pentagon's) double simultaneous failure which affects most the unfolding of the global systemic crisis for the months to come, as it precipitates China and the EU into the « vacuum » thus created and thrusts the US into « recessflation ».



Rest of the world holdings of US financial assets / Source US Federal Reserve - PrudentBear
_

In this public announcement, LEAP/E2020 wishes to share publicly some of GEAB N°16 excerpts (on subscription) about the consequences of this failed attempt of economic relaunch conducted by Ben Bernanke and the Fed's loss of control over US interest rates, of historical dimension (6).

Today, the Fed's official stance pretends that the US economy will grow again in the coming months and reduces to a mere anecdote the collapse of US growth in the first quarter (down to 0.6 percent only), anticipating a 2.5 see 3 percent growth altogether in 2007 (7), knowing that recent economic previsions published by the UN place US growth around 0.5 percent in 2008 (8). As early as March 2007, LEAP/E2020 anticipated a growth below 1 percent in the third quarter of 2007 (in consideration of the first terms 0.6 percent, annual growth is very likely indeed to be at best below 2 percent, more likely negative in the end).

Nevertheless this official stance is contradicted by most available objective indicators (corporate performance, employment,...), even if it seems supported by a whole range of other indicators, either indicators carefully ‘cooked' by the Federal government or subjective indicators reflecting for instance the impact of official statements on public opinion. LEAP/E2020 already described in 2006 how opinion manipulations work; and in GEAB N°16 (on subscription), our team of researchers details a number of objective indicators that can help to anticipate precisely US economic trends in the next quarters (in particular: hidden unemployment rise, « phantom-GDP » mechanism of US growth overrating, or increasingly devastating impact of the housing and subprime crises).

A great lack of transparency reigned over the Fed's actions in terms of monetary mass and global assets in USD (such as the end of M3 publication at the end of March 2006) (9). Well this strategy proved to be a complete failure. The attempt to substitute a financial/stock bubble instead of the housing bubble, like Greenspan did when he turned the internet bubble into a housing bubble, in order to maintain US growth did not succeed. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can always flood the US economy with liquidities. The only result will be in increasing US inflation and the fleeing from US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets. Just like the US troops are stuck in an endless conflict in Iraq, the US consumer is exhausted and insolvent, as illustrated by the close correlation between retail sales and the fast growing consumer delinquency rates.



Compared retail sales & consumer delinquency rates in the US on one year - Source Moody's
As a result, the Fed will experience a central bank's absolute nightmare: stagflation, or more precisely « recessflation » (10). The crisis currently agitating financial markets, with interest rates' « natural » curve being restored and long-term rates back above short-term rates, clearly proves that the US debt and US Treasury bonds no longer find buyers (11).

If T-Bond yields rise today, it is not by fear of inflation but because nobody wants to buy them anymore (12) (a situation anticipated by LEAP/E2020 a year ago already). As a matter of fact, foreign investors (only 11 percent of the last T-Bond sell-off (13)) are now those who fix the rate, and the Fed can only follow the trend in long-term international interest rates. Simultaneously, the Fed will have to increase its repurchasing of the US debt, operating for instance via figureheads such as those large associated investment banks, as LEAP/E2020 described many times.

What is new in the current situation is that the Fed is being deprived from its last remaining instrument. The rest of world now determines US rates. Simultaneously systemic uncertainty is back on financial markets. Investors suddenly realise that in the medium- and long-term, they no longer have any guarantee on global system's trends (while only a few months ago, they were convinced that the current system was sustainable). This situation highlights the fact that it is outside the US that the country's future economically and financially speaking is being played, as illustrated on three occasions in the last six months by the impact on US markets of Chinese decisions (dollar and stocks). This is a totally new situation for the US ever since the end of WWI which clearly suggests that the world order created after 1945 has come to an end.

This double simultaneous failure creates a new situation, radically modifying everyone's perception of the future, and deeply affecting the dominant trends of the beginning of the phase of impact of the global systemic crisis (such as for instance the US capacity of action militarily and diplomatically speaking) while significantly reinforcing other trends (such as China and the EU being sucked into the systemic crisis as a result of the accelerating evolution in their respective status of emerging pillars of the new global system, a crisis-bearer phenomenon for both China and the EU).

Thus, in this Summer 2007 issue of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (on subscription), LEAP/E2020 consider it useful to anticipate the four following trends that they consider will shape this year's second semester in terms of economy, finance and international policies:

1. Finance – Investor's shift away from US Treasury bonds, the Sovereign Wealth Funds, the Fed's loss of control over US interest rates and the great return of market volatility

2. US economy – The « phantom-GDP » invented by US statistics, aggravation of the US housing crisis and rise in real unemployment: the « 2007 Very Great Depression » is shaping

3. International trade – Fallout of US economic recession on the United States and China: enhanced trade conflict and Chinese financial system in crisis

4. Euroland – Eurozone in crisis with a bursting housing bubble in Spain and speculative currency bubbles in Eastern Europe

As LEAP/E2020 describes in GEAB N°16 (on subscription), during the summer 2007, these heavy trends will get organised to shape the rest of the year, taking from the rear the last three months' mainstream opinion. In this issue of GEAB, our team provides some advice for investors to avoid this coming summer's main risks.




Notes:

(1) Bear Stearns opens the bal with second-quarter profits dropping by 10 percent, in relation to the subprime crisis. But this second quarter is probably the first of a long series to experience the full effect of a crisis that is only beginning (described in the previous issues of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin). Recent declarations by Bear Stearns leaders provide a clear picture of what large US investment banks outght to be expecting : after the subprime loans, Alt-A loans (less risky) are beginning to provoke corporate losses and hedge-funds liquidations for 4 billion worth of mortgage-backed bonds. Source : Bloomberg, 06/14/2007

(2) Source : MarketWatch/DowJones, 06/14/2007

(3) Source : MarketWatch/DowJones, 06/14/2007

(4) In June 2007, Harvard University released the yearly « Joint Center for Housing Studies » on housing trends in the US. The study clearly suggests that the housing crisis is only beginning as « prices only begin to fall, riskiest loans are only about to enter refinancing period, and credit restrictions only started ». The impact on the financial sphere, consumption and employment is still ahead and will materialize more and more roughly from this summer onward.

(5) President G.W. Bush's approval rating fell to 29 percent, with 66 percent of respondents disapproving of him (his lowest result ever). In the same Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, reported by MarketWatch/Dow Jones 06/13/2007, 68 percent of Americans consider that their country is headed in the wrong direction. 23 percent approve the performance of the 1-year long Democrat-controlled Congress. Iraq and the economy being key-factors of US public opinion today, the gap between the « official » figures and the optimistic statements we hear today on the US economy on the one hand, and the American opinion on the state of their country on the other hand, is clearly abyssal.

(6) The military and strategic aspects will be described in GEAB N°17 (on subscription).

(7) Source : GlobalInsight.

(8) Source : Rob Vos, Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), UN, 05/30/2007

(9) In the second issue of GEAB (February 2006), LEAP/E2020 announced the discontinuance of M3 publication.

(10) Recent UN economic revised forecasts anticipate a 0.5 percent US growth in 2008, far from the 2 to 3 percent announced by the US authorities and largest banks and financial media. Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), UN, 05/30/2007

(11) Source : MarketWatch/DowJones, 06/12/2007

(12) Source : Financial Times, 06/12/2007

(13) Source : MsnMoneyCentral / Financial Times, 06/12/2007




August 19, 2007

Adjustable Gastric Banding

Journey Lite specializes in Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding which is also known as LAGB or the lap-band System procedure.

This lap-band procedure entails that it be fastened around the upper part of your stomach to create a new stomach pouch which limits and controls the amount of food you eat. After its placement, the lap-band is locked securely in a ring around the stomach.

Using this technique has most excellent benefits for those seeking better health. The main reason to undergo this innovative and helpful procedure is that the lap-band adjusts in a way such that you will feel full faster.

This makes you eat less, thereby allowing you to lose weight and enhance your quality of life in the process.







August 15, 2007

Currency Repatriation

Last week's credit crunch has set off a worldwide rush for dollars as banks and fund managers scramble to pay back loans used to buy risky mortgage securities. They are competing with firms such as AXA Investment Managers, Investec Asset Management Ltd. and FX Concepts Inc., which are also buying dollars in a bet on further appreciation.
FULL ARTICLE

If the US is repatriating money back into the USA from abroad, then that is reducing foreign holdings of dollars as a reserve currency.

For example, if the US brings in a millions of dollars from Europe, then that is a million dollars less that is being used as a reserve currency in Europe.




August 14, 2007

New Bretton Woods?

Got this interesting article in the mail today. Overall, I am not certain about how effective the below proposal is, but it is interesting to consider nonetheless.

Schiller Institute Call For New Bretton Woods

Following up the previous calls of 1997, 2000, and 2006, in which thousands of prominent personalities from all over the world, among them former heads of state, members of parliaments, unionists, entrepreneurs, city officials, church members, members of the military, and so forth, demanded a reorganization of the world financial system, the Chairwoman of the Schiller Institute, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, has written the following new call, which will be circulated worldwide by the Schiller Institute. It should be published on the Internet and in various newspapers with the names of the signers, and will be presented to the American Congress and the parliaments of the world.
The systemic crash of the world financial system is in full swing. Shaken loose but not caused by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the U.S. and the end of the inflationary yen-carry-trade in Japan, the house of cards of "creative financial instruments," as Alan Greenspan has dubbed various credit derivatives, has thereby caved in. Because the takeover craze on the part of the hedge funds and private equity funds has been rising higher and higher over the recent years and months with ever wilder predatory raids, the investment banks which have financed the majority of these takeovers, are now left sitting on these worthless credits. More U.S. mortgage financiers will declare insolvency, more banks will go under in the vortex of the credit crisis. In the U.S. there are currently almost 10 trillion dollars in mortgage loans, over a third of which are bad credit risks. In Germany the examples of the IKB-Bank and the Westdeutsche LandesBank have shown that boards of directors are finding it hard to admit the quantity of their losses.
The myth that the central banks have an endless number of possibilities to always bring a crash under control, is exploding: they now find themselves between the Scylla of the fight against inflation with higher interest rates--which is urgent in the face of the obvious inflation of food, raw materials and oil, but would lead to bubbles like that of the U.S. mortgage market, and the like, bursting even more,--and the Charybdis of the credit crisis, which has been unleashed by the reversed leverage collapse. If the central banks try to stop a chain reaction by infusing liquidity in the range of hundreds of billions, as just occurred within 24 hours during the second week of August, this only means that there will be a hyperinflation like that in Weimar Germany 1923--only this time not in one country, but worldwide.
It is a dilemma from which there is no way out: the system is finished.
Catastrophic consequences are threatened for the world population. If countries can no longer finance their functions, societies threaten to sink into chaos. The model of so-called globalization is today totally bankrupt, just as the communist model was in 1989-91. All the principles which are associated with it, such as "outsourcing" (that is, the shifting of highly qualified jobs into cheap-production countries), "shareholder value" society, "money-makes-money," "just-in-time" production, "benchmarking," etc. have been rejected. The condition of collapsing infrastructure in the G-7 countries is the best indicator of the wreckage of the unregulated free market economy.
In order to stop the intolerable suffering which an uncontrolled collapse of the world financial system threatens to unleash on the population, we, the undersigned, demand, the immediate convoking of an emergency conference which must decide on a new global financial architecture in the tradition of the Bretton Woods System initiated by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.
We, the undersigned, also point out, that the Italian Parliament has taken up LaRouche's proposal, and in a resolution on April 6, 2005, called on the Italian government to convene "an international conference at the level of Heads of State and Government, to globally define a new and more just monetary and financial system."
The necessity for such a fundamental reorganization is all the more urgent today, but the potential for its realization has also grown. For an irony of history is responsible: Because when the Soviet Union began to unravel in 1991, the neo-conservatives in the government of President George Bush, Sr., decided to transform the American republic, according to the "Project for a New American Century," into an empire. This "force doctrine" rested on the proposition, that neither one nation, nor a group of nations, could be allowed to threaten the dominant position of the United States, in a political, economic, or military respect.
But now the neo-conservatives in the Bush/Cheney regime, with their policy of preventive war and regime change, have ensured that the process of cooperation among the nations of Eurasia and Latin America, which normally would have taken decades, has accelerated, under the influence of the American unilateralist policy. An array of heads of state of important countries have made it clear, that they have decided to defend the general welfare of their populations against the encroachment of the financial institutions associated with globalization. Therefore, the chances of putting the question of a just new world economic order on the agenda, have enormously increased.
But it would be a dangerous illusion to believe that a successful reorganization of the bankrupt world financial system could succeed without, or against, the United States. Therefore, we, the undersigned, declare ourselves in favor of cooperation with the "real" America, in the tradition of the American Revolution and the Declaration of Independence, that America which is connected with names such as Alexander Hamilton, John Quincy Adams, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Martin Luther King, and which is inspired by Lyndon LaRouche today. America must be a part of the new community of principle of sovereign republics, which is bound together through the common interests of mankind.
In recent months Lyndon LaRouche has pointed out again and again that only the combination of a transformed America, together with Russia, China, and India, would be strong enough to put the question of a new monetary system on the agenda. But that does not mean that other nations could and should not participate as partners with these four large nations.
In order to correct the failures of development, which have occurred due to the paradigm shift of the past 40 years, and above all, since the abandonment of the system of fixed exchange rates by U.S. President Richard Nixon, in 1971, and which led, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, with unrestrained globalization, to today's brutal vulture capitalism, we must implement the following measures:
The emergency conference for a New Bretton Woods must immediately thus resolve:
1. The current world financial system must be declared hopelessly bankrupt and be replaced by a new one.
2. A system of fixed exchange rates must be agreed upon immediately.
3. Derivatives speculation must be prohibited through an agreement among governments.
4. There must be put into effect a comprehensive reorganization, or, as the case may be, a stretching-out of debts.
5. There must be put in place new credit lines, through state credit creation, in the tradition of Alexander Hamilton and the American System, which will make possible productive full employment, through investments in basic infrastructure and technological revival.
6. The completion of the Eurasian Land-Bridge, as the kernel of the reconstruction of the world economy, is thus the vision which will not only bring about an economic miracle, but also can become a system of peace for the 21st Century.
7. A new "Treaty of Westphalia" must guarantee the opening up and development of raw materials for all nations on this Earth, for at least the next 50 years.
We, the undersigned, are of the belief that the system of "globalization," with its brutal vulture capitalism, has economically, financially, and morally failed. In its place, man must again be put in the center, and the economy must serve the general welfare first and foremost. The new economic order must guarantee the inalienable rights of all mankind on this planet.
Signed:
Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Federal chairwoman of the BueSo and the Schiller Institute





August 13, 2007

Invest in SCORE Tutors

A wise investment is always in ones children. That is why my wife and I decided to send ours to a tutoring service when troubling grades in English appeared on the report card, we got the kid, sat him down, and told him that we were not angry, but intended to help fix the problem. Our friends suggested using Reading Tutors, from SCORE! and this was great help.

What is so great about SCORE! is the personal attention our son got. The reading program that we used helped reinforce his basic reading skills. After that initial phase, his tutor having watched and learned about the kids weaknesses, helped him develop strategies strengthening his reading and comprehension skills






August 10, 2007

USA Update


Stocks Plunge on Credit Concerns. The Dow Jones industrials extended its series of triple-digit swings, this time falling more than 380 points. The Federal Reserve added a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system. This means more cash, more liquidity, more paper printing and therefore

MORE US DOLLAR DEVALUATION AND THUS MORE INFLATION.

In any case THIS INJECTION OF CASH from the USA Feds and the ECB are JUST A DROP IN AN OCEAN WHAT WE ARE TALKING HERE SCORES OF TRILLION OF DOLLARS PRINTED OUT OF THIN AIR AND USED NOT IN INFRASTRUCTURES, INDUSTRIES OR MACHINERY OR R&D BUT IN FINANCIAL SCAMS LIKE SUBPRIME LOANS, DERIVATIVES, OPTIONS, MERGER & ACQUISITIONS FRAUDS AND SCAMS THAT ARE NOW STARTING TO UNWIND FASTER AND FASTER!


more info at
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/08/09/ap4005516.html




Book Review

America's Financial Reckoning Day: How you can survive Americas monetary & political decline in the 21st Century

Methinks that this book should be read with a grain of salt since its author is no expert in the field of finance, but rather a religious scholar. The publisher says:

The history and founding of America is almost a fairy tale of providence and good fortune. As Senate Chaplain Dr. Peter Marshall has recounted in his classic book, The Light and the Glory, no other nation has been blessed with such an abundance of material wealth and spiritual heritage as the United States of America. In 1787, our Founding Fathers established a near-perfect system of representative government and sound monetary policy. Yet, as our nation enters the 21st Century there is a great foreboding that our financial infrastructure is facing unprecedented challenges in addition to serious geopolitical developments that threaten our very existence. How has this happened to the most powerful nation on earth, and what will be the likely outcome? To answer these questions it is necessary to examine the monetary history of the U.S. up to the present hour and also look back to ancient prophecies that are contained in the Bible. Here is a gripping account that will captivate and enlighten you. It is also a message of hope and inspiration that you will want to share with others. There is no need to "close our eyes" if we can confidently look into our future.





Guiding Principle

“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never
was and never will be. The people cannot be safe without information.”

– Thomas Jefferson


August 8, 2007

Optimism

If credit is used for productive expansion, it need not result in collapse. Our credit boom does appear to be finally imploding though.

Japan's real estate collapse brought about massive expenditures on infrastructure, which follows along with your reasoning of what the credit is spent on. I think with this recent bridge collapse we're about to see similar expenditures here in the US. On a massive scale.

"Stagnant wages and a declining dollar have thrust the country into a deflationary cycle"
This is when the hellicopter drop comes into play, these deflationary bubbles being popped are in reality only the elite pulling out their profits.

Pirate Capitalism only follows two rules.

Rule One, Pass the costs on to the Public.

Rule Two, keep the profits Private. These are the only rules one needs to follow in order to understand how the game is played. Peace.





Financial Pessimism

The most devastating news of all:

August 3 - CNBC (Diana Olick's blog):

"They're pulling themselves out of the market to regroup," is what one of my mortgage broker buddies told me on the phone this morning when I asked how in the heck Wells Fargo could raise rates on a 30-year jumbo fixed rate mortgage from 6 7/8% to 8% overnight. A jumbo is anything over $417,000, and given today's home prices, that's going to hit an awful lot of borrowers."






August 2, 2007

Cold Turkey

It seems that investors are investing more on the basis of perceptions, rather than on facts. Turkey (the country, not the bird) is a case in point. Emerging markets hold a lot of investors capital, but as the article explains, there are many dangers. So, before the turbulenece shifts into a hurricane, it is perhaps a good idea to end your investments in the emerging markets, and switch over to other types of investments.

Turkey may have been helped by the perception that, because many emerging markets have improved their economic positions, all of them are less risky. Emerging-market bond spreads (the excess rate over Treasury-bond yields) reached a record low of around one-and-a-half percentage points in June. When investors were only getting 6% for lending money to investment backwaters such as Peru, a 6.7% yield from Turkey must have looked like a bargain.

But it is in the nature of emerging markets that, every so often, they kick investors in the teeth. This looks like being one of those moments. Of course, within 12 months, investors are bound to be back, their smiles expensively restored. Fast economic growth and high yields are just too alluring.








Endowment Funds Sinking

Money Matters blog has a very good in depth analysis of how the endowment funds of our nations major research universities, Harvard in particular, are falling victim to the current chaos with funds.

Scarily enough, the author of this analysis points to a worrying fact that has become a part of life:

All the world stock markets except for China, fell today. This wasn't a tremor of fear, it was a near universal panic. A classic panic. Friday, it will either be resolved via a soupcon of lies and funny number crunching or it will continue. I think the need to pretend nothing is wrong is still very strong. Everyone will clutch at straws so the tiniest good news like the Apple iPhone, will cause hysterical outpouring of joy.





Changing LINKS